New Zealand scientists and ethics experts are urging caution over a blood test said to predict how long people will live for.

The so-called telomere test, developed in the United States by three companies, measures the tips of a person’s genes, called telomeres. The companies claim it can show how long the person will survive, based on how short the telomeres are.

The development of the test has encouraged drug companies to work on a medicine that can reverse the ageing process.

Dr Jerry Shay of the University of Texas South Western Medical, a respected scientist, is adviser to one of three companies making the test.

He has defended it on TV ONE’s Close Up.

“People simply want to know, do I have healthy cells in my body? Will I live another 20 years?” Shay said.

And he said the investment in the project speaks for itself.

“You will find people to talk to to say its all rubbish and I’d warn you that’s not true anymore. People don’t start companies if they don’t believe people are going to get value for what they’re getting.”

Forty-eight-year-old Associate Professor Andrew Shelling of the University of Auckland told Close Up the test is not reliable.

“I’d like to know what will happen to me in future. But I don’t think this is right information for me and I don’t trust the information.”

Shelling is a geneticist himself and he is not impressed with the telomere test.

“There’s not a lot of support for this gene test internationally among researchers because there are so many uncertainties.”

The fact that the protective telomeres on genes get shorter with age is based on Nobel prize winning science.

Shelling said they are like the little bit of plastic on the end of a shoelace. But many things affect how a shoelace end wears down, and it is the same for telomeres.

“If you smoke, you drink, your socio-economic status, your diet, so many things affect telomere length. Using the gene test is only one small part.”

So he believed the test cannot tell you much because “there is a lot variation between individuals”.

“It’s marginally better than tossing a coin.”

Professor Mark Henaghan who specialises in law and ethics at the University of Otago agreed with Shelling and said the key issue is how accurate the tests are.

Henaghan said people would not want to get a blood pressure or cholesterol test that was inaccurate and the same applies to the gene test.

“Until the tests are reasonably accurate and can tell us something meaningful – and Andrew Shelling who is a very good scientist has said at this stage they don’t – until that stage is reached I think we have to be very cautious about it.

“But if they do tell us things we need to know then that’s very helpful. It’s just one more factor in diagnosing how well we may or may not be.”

Asked if insurance companies or health officials could make decisions on care based on telomere test results, Henaghan said

some countries have legislated that certain genetic information should not be available in certain situations.

He said insurance companies do not require tests to be done, but their clients provide information if they have had a test done of their own accord.

Even before the science is proved, some US doctors are offering pricey treatments to get telomeres growing and that is another concern for Professor Shelling.

“They give you information on the gene test and immediately make you vulnerable to their products,” he said.

Shelling said the US companies are misrepresenting the strength of science behind telomere length and ageing.

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